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Author Topic: Naked Chart Trading  (Read 14289 times)

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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #45 on: February 04, 2009, 10:43:51 AM »

I find the most difficult part of this trading tactic is to pace the market.  I find very few chart showing what to do even in the original thread.  I posted here a a chart showing that price action read by me, as best as I could.  If anyone has better price read, please share.  If I make any mistake, please also let me know.  (Of course I did this on hindsight. In real trading, I only managed to do part of the possible trades mentioned :p. )


A: Notice that this impulsive move is smaller than the previous one, take note of the bull MAYBE losing its strength.

B: Lower high, bearish sign.

C: Lower low, more bearish sign.  Also notice that now price has retraced about 50% of impulsive move (up) marked A.  To me the up move may be ending soon.

D. Yet a lower high, possible a tipple top.  Also notice the congestion zone may suggest present of bear force is much stronger than before.  Get ready to short.

E&F:  Possible short entry locations; E being more aggressive.  If I am more aggressive, I may short scout at E and attack at F.

G: IF I did attack, I may consider taking off the attacking force when price reached this previous congestion zone area and pause.

H: Pull back, could be the short at E&F is wrong, as long as congestion zone top or A is not exceeded, still got chance.  It could also be a typical pull back after bread down from congestion zone.  Be alert.

I: This is a possible Andrew Pitchfork price target (D-G-H-I), previous congestion zone (at the left hand side of this chart) and stop sweeping area.  I may exit my attacking force and/or scout here.

J: Yet another lower high, more bearish move to come?

L: Another possible short entry location.  But this time round I am unlikely to attack as this seem to be the 5th wave down.  If I am squared at I, this is just a redeployment of scout.  If I am not squared at I, I may not add; even if I add, will be the size will be small.

M: Whatever added at L, most likely I will exit here or the doji before this bar (at a better price) as price paused.

O: Though this is still a lower high, this retracement to wave J-N is more than 50%.  The down move may be ending soon, stay alert, don't get too aggressive when shorting.

P: Another possible short entry.  No attack as congestion zone is ahead.

Q: Higher low, and the impulsive wave down O-Q is shorter than the previous one, down trend may be ending soon.  Notice also this is one of a series of higher lows if I look toward the left hand bottom of this chart. I will try to scratch whatever I enter at P and squared.
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #46 on: February 04, 2009, 10:52:30 AM »

Here is the update chart after I snap the previous chart.  I think I read correctly that the down trend is ending soon.
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jjs

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #47 on: February 05, 2009, 01:38:03 PM »

HC, thanks for the step-by-step of the charts above.

I think that one of the keys to successful trading is patience.  This is especially so when trading with a naked chart.  Each night when I log on, there is the urge to deploy a scout immediately because:

1. there's only a few hours before I have to hit the sack
2. it's only a demo account and therefore I should practise and make as many mistakes as possible.

I am still working on my patience and tell myself that I dont have to have a position at all...but you know it's really such an obsessive compulsive thingy that it's difficult to control :D

If only we have the patience to wait for a top or bottom, we would know with greater certainty that there would be a minimum 1-2-3 waiting for us.  Of course there's still the possibility that a rescue might be needed but the odds should be in favour of an impulse wave.

My experiments with the 2-3-5 skew did not go very well.  It doesnt suit my dance and I have reverted to the 1-1-2-3-5-8 skew.  Rescue remains as 1-5-surrender or 1-3-5-surrender.  I also discovered that I prefer the "raiding" style to the "campaign" style, ie the level 2 and 3 units are withdrawn from the battle before deploying level 4 or 5.  It feels better with profits in the pocket :)
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jjs

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #48 on: February 07, 2009, 02:16:53 AM »

Would like to just post this evening's trade.

My copy of SnagIt has expired so it's just a rough capture without annotation save the 2 green arrows.  Left one was when trade started and right was when I decided to call it a day.

Was actually looking at Yanlord's charts  ;) when I opened short position.  Rescued that and long all the way. 

Good night  :)
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #49 on: February 07, 2009, 06:47:17 AM »


Would like to just post this evening's trade.



Well done!

I see that you successfully rescued your first (short) session quick and fast;   realigned and went long & attacked 2 sessions.  I only did one (long) session about the same as yours and did not do the 2nd round as I need to zzz :).


Quote

My copy of SnagIt has expired ...



We have a thread here that list a few FOC (legal) screen capture softwares, see if you like anyone :).

http://chartistsunited.com/forum/index.php/topic,36.msg38.html#msg38
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jjs

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #50 on: February 10, 2009, 08:51:13 AM »

This is the clearest step-by-step from fti so far:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2050855&postcount=2999

Taking out the last attack size really helps and the loss is usually recoverable.  Second part of MO, the reversal, is not recommended for newbies...not for me anyway...

Quote

I had one of those too, recently.So I guess you want to know as you may have been there too, huh.

OK, Although I think it is unwise to make a carbon copy of me, I 'll give you a little sketch for your education.

Yes, it is possible to be caught in a sudden impulse against our open positions sometimes.

If that was at scout levels then the response is easy. You figure it out yourself. Its already given in the thread.

If it was when we are at rescue mode or attack mode, then a little discomfort is likely, this is the MO. When a counter impulse wave hits, the move are very swift, sharp and directional, normally against our position.

If such was in our position I call it windfall profit and I initiate profitaking procedures to regroup for a strong skew attack later. .

If such was to my detrement, I call it a @#$% position and I take out the last attack size from the market at a loss, and allow the remaining positions to "bleed".

I then would go back to the charts to check if the impulse is "contained" within the scope of the trend. Normally it would have killed the short chart trend and indicated reversal. It would be good to see if this was so , in the hourly charts.

Then I scan through the other short charts up to the hourly to find the point where the impulse is not reversal to continue a level up rescue, if it exist.

Otherwise, if the hourly chart is impacted the next rescue is 1 level up from the last cut loss size and RESCUE IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE IMPULSE , this means that the open positions are reversed, as the bleeding stops and built into position as the volatility wanes, normally in such instances, the retraces would hardly be 30 % normally 10%. So the reversal is executed in stages swiftly as the bleeding slows and as soon as the next wave is "felt", the rescue "last+1 level up" is pumped into the market to rescue.

Please be aware that this protocol could expose your book up to 30% in the process. therefore do not overstay the rescue. Bring it back to below 10% as soon as the impulse wave slows off , in volitility. Although, the impulse will continue in lesser volitility, it is unwise to carry high exposures, cut back to a smaller spiral , that you may have possibility to mount another attack, if and when it comes, without spiralling the book to oblivion. This is risk management and it is used to supress the "scorpion" ie greed.

The increased risk is necessary to turn and recover, but NEVER find excuses to stay at the increased risk level. If you do your next stage, exposes full book. AND if you are wrong, you shall become rogue trader.

This is no recommended for newbies and those who have not created for themselves, a foreign capital buffer. For them "bite the bullet , and take the pain."

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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #51 on: February 10, 2009, 09:16:37 AM »

Thanks jjs for highlighting this piece.

It is weired that I have read this piece by fti a few times (at least 4 times I think) at different time of my learning, I discovered minor details almost every new read.

This is the "flipping", and fti does not recommend newbie to try (even old dog that does not have enough profit in account statement also don't try):

Quote

Then I scan through the other short charts up to the hourly to find the point where the impulse is not reversal to continue a level up rescue, if it exist.

Otherwise, if the hourly chart is impacted the next rescue is 1 level up from the last cut loss size and RESCUE IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE IMPULSE , this means that the open positions are reversed, as the bleeding stops and built into position as the volatility wanes, normally in such instances, the retraces would hardly be 30 % normally 10%. So the reversal is executed in stages swiftly as the bleeding slows and as soon as the next wave is "felt", the rescue "last+1 level up" is pumped into the market to rescue.



And the warning of its danger:

Quote

Please be aware that this protocol could expose your book up to 30% in the process. therefore do not overstay the rescue. Bring it back to below 10% as soon as the impulse wave slows off , in volitility. Although, the impulse will continue in lesser volitility, it is unwise to carry high exposures, cut back to a smaller spiral , that you may have possibility to mount another attack, if and when it comes, without spiralling the book to oblivion. This is risk management and it is used to supress the "scorpion" ie greed.

The increased risk is necessary to turn and recover, but NEVER find excuses to stay at the increased risk level.


I think he ever mentioned that even for experience trader, if need to flip 2 times, then mindset is confused.  Better stop trading.

Another thing that is not obvious when I first read this is the relation of the skew.  The fibo sequences 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 as reference has good reason, one of them is here: when flipping, withdraw the that last attack sequence (say 1+1+2+3, remove 3), flip -5, a net short position.

So when deviate from the recommended skew, better be mindful of this fact.
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #52 on: February 25, 2009, 12:38:15 PM »

This trading method involve rescue, which carries risk of margin call in not done properly.  You has been warned and please deploy rescue with care.


Here is the margin requirement consideration:

Initial Account balance : $10,000, leverage 1:200, no position, free margin $10,000. Trade only EURUSD.


Scenario One:

For some reason, position is opened and after a few layers of rescue, total long position is 1 std lot at average price of 1.2800 while current price is 1.2770, let us look at how this is going to change the free margin:

Margin required : 1.2800x100,000x1/200 = $640
Unrealised Loss: (1.2800-1.2770)x100,000x1=$300
Free Margin : 10,000-640-300 = $9060

To exhaust this free margin without adding any more rescue, price need to move (9060/10=) 906 pips further against the trader (from 1.2770 to 1.1864) before the trader face margin call.  Not very likely to happen considering the trading time frame.


Scenario Two:

Continue from Scenario One, further rescues are deployed (2x & 4x) and total long position is 7 std lots at average price of 1.2700 while current price is 1.2670, let us look at how this is going to change the free margin:

Margin required : 1.2700x100,000x7/200 = $4445
Unrealised Loss: (1.2700-1.2670)x100,000x7=$2100
Free Margin : 10,000-4445-2100 = $3445

To exhaust this free margin without adding any more rescue, price need to move (3445/(10x7)=) 49 pips further against the trader (from 1.2670 to 1.2620) before the trader face margin call.

Now this is NOT something unlikely to happen.

Here is the quote from Art of War that relates to this:
http://chartistsunited.com/forum/index.php/topic,547.msg3285.html#msg3285


[HC Note: This post was edited on 2009-04-29 to include the link to the quote from Art of War]
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #53 on: March 04, 2009, 06:53:42 PM »

This is extension of thought based on the margin requirement mentioned by the previous posting:

As we can see from Scenario One, when the margin utilization is low, the free margin can act as a buffer for any adverse price movement to the current positions, thus giving it more time and space to choose a better location for further deployment of rescue; in a way this allows a better probability of successful rescue.

Whereas in the case of Scenario Two, the buffer is low and the risk of margin call is high, not to mention the pressure on the trader who is watching the open drawdown snowballed.

The points here are:

1. We need to have sufficient account balance, in relation to the scout and rescue size.

2. Deployment of rescue must handle with great care.
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jjs

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #54 on: March 04, 2009, 08:30:12 PM »

Hi HC

I've been pondering on the spiral in spiral bit...also the spiral in and spiral out.  Probably have to re-read those sections a few more times before I get a better picture.

From what I understand about spiral in spiral (the concept, not the exact numbers):

Level 1 = 1,1,2
Level 2 = 4,4,8
Level 3 = 16,16,32
etc

Some of the hand-holding sessions, fti mentioned deploying Level 2 attack sequence.  Assuming that the fibo progression is same as that illustrated above, he would be deploying 4 units, 4 units, 8 units in that attack.  Would that be correct

As for the spiral in and spiral out...that refers to the ratio that is either more or less than 1.  Would that be correct as well?

PS Margin calls - understand that fxdd liquidate positions at 100% of leverage, ie no position would be allowed to go beyond -100 pips.  Hope I interpreted this correctly.
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #55 on: March 04, 2009, 10:33:52 PM »

PS Margin calls - understand that fxdd liquidate positions at 100% of leverage, ie no position would be allowed to go beyond -100 pips.  Hope I interpreted this correctly.

I don't think you interpreted this correctly, and I just blown a US$10k (demo :p ) FXDD account to confirm:

1. When the margin level reached 100%, meaning all the equity (last closed balance net off any unrealised P&L) are used as margin required to maintain the current positions.  This mean that there is no more free margin.  Therefore FXDD will liquidate all open positions.

2. When that happens, all open drawdown will be realised and become actual loss.  Since all positions are closed, the margin used to maintain these positions previously will also be released as "Free Margin".  This means that the account balance after margin called though will be greatly reduced, will not become zero.

3. There is no limit on the number of pips a positions can go against the traders, as long as there is still free margin available, FXDD will not liquidate the position.
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HC

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #56 on: March 04, 2009, 11:21:59 PM »


Level 1 = 1,1,2
Level 2 = 4,4,8
Level 3 = 16,16,32


1. From what I understand, fti refers to the above levels when he talk about when he was employed and trading FX for the bank.  1,1,2 is for junior traders, 4,4,8 is for senor traders, while 16,16,32 is for even more senor trades.  There are not the fixed levels of attacking lot sizing ratio.

2. The normal way of attack is the fibo sequence of 1,1,2,3,5,8,13, I think this is the spiral in; while later closing out 13,8,5,3,2,1,1 is the spiral out.

3. Though fibo sequence is for reference, the actual attacking lot size multiples can varies according to experience and chart terrain.  I have seen someone doing -1, -3, +3, -3, +3, +1 (scout 1, attack 3, unwind 3, attack 3 again, unwind 3, close scout, see attached chart).  The main point, I think, is to start with a small scout, and pyramid up with increased lot size as chart terrain permits, and unwind when momentum is lost.  Going from smaller scout to bigger attack, and even bigger attack when there is opportunity.

4. The increasing lot size sequence has the characteristic of tackling ranging and trending market.  In ranging market, we don't have much chance to add more layers of attack, say just can do 1,1 & 2 then price action make us closed all.  However, if our initial opinion of a "ranging market" is wrong and price move from range low above range high (breaking range) and trend up, the initial established 1,1,2 can now acts as a profit buffer to added further attack of 3 or more.  Even 2 was closed at range high, the balance 1,1 can also act as profit buffer for further attack of 2 or 3.

5. If the lot size if weighted heavy at the front (scout) level, it will put more pressure on rescue if scout is wrongly deployed.  This may extend to require precise location of scout deployment, which will become limiting in selecting entry opportunity.

6. Remember the option of leaving the scout in place after unwinding all the attacking army?  This way the scout can have the opportunity of riding a longer trend move, while the 2nd wave of battle is out of scout's range.  As you know, trading longer time frame, required larger tolerance of price move.  In order to keep the risk small while having relatively larger price move in longer term trade, lot size has to be small.  Thus scout is small.

7. Just as what I told my friend, the beauty of this trading method is: you start with a scalp; if you are right, ride a trend; if you are wrong, rescue; if you are dead right, leave scout along the way to pin the major price move.


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jjs

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #57 on: March 04, 2009, 11:50:45 PM »

PS Margin calls - understand that fxdd liquidate positions at 100% of leverage, ie no position would be allowed to go beyond -100 pips.  Hope I interpreted this correctly.

I don't think you interpreted this correctly, and I just blown a US$10k (demo :p ) FXDD account to confirm:

1. When the margin level reached 100%, meaning all the equity (last closed balance net off any unrealised P&L) are used as margin required to maintain the current positions.  This mean that there is no more free margin.  Therefore FXDD will liquidate all open positions.

2. When that happens, all open drawdown will be realised and become actual loss.  Since all positions are closed, the margin used to maintain these positions previously will also be released as "Free Margin".  This means that the account balance after margin called though will be greatly reduced, will not become zero.

3. There is no limit on the number of pips a positions can go against the traders, as long as there is still free margin available, FXDD will not liquidate the position.


Thank you 大师兄 :) Wished fxdd had explained the matter as effectively as you have.
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jjs

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #58 on: March 05, 2009, 12:13:42 AM »


1. From what I understand, fti refers to the above levels when he talk about when he was employed and trading FX for the bank.  1,1,2 is for junior traders, 4,4,8 is for senor traders, while 16,16,32 is for even more senor trades.  There are not the fixed levels of attacking lot sizing ratio.

2. The normal way of attack is the fibo sequence of 1,1,2,3,5,8,13, I think this is the spiral in; while later closing out 13,8,5,3,2,1,1 is the spiral out.

3. Though fibo sequence is for reference, the actual attacking lot size multiples can varies according to experience and chart terrain.  I have seen someone doing -1, -3, +3, -3, +3, +1 (scout 1, attack 3, unwind 3, attack 3 again, unwind 3, close scout, see attached chart).  The main point, I think, is to start with a small scout, and pyramid up with increased lot size as chart terrain permits, and unwind when momentum is lost.  Going from smaller scout to bigger attack, and even bigger attack when there is opportunity.

4. The increasing lot size sequence has the characteristic of tackling ranging and trending market.  In ranging market, we don't have much chance to add more layers of attack, say just can do 1,1 & 2 then price action make us closed all.  However, if our initial opinion of a "ranging market" is wrong and price move from range low above range high (breaking range) and trend up, the initial established 1,1,2 can now acts as a profit buffer to added further attack of 3 or more.  Even 2 was closed at range high, the balance 1,1 can also act as profit buffer for further attack of 2 or 3.

5. If the lot size if weighted heavy at the front (scout) level, it will put more pressure on rescue if scout is wrongly deployed.  This may extend to require precise location of scout deployment, which will become limiting in selecting entry opportunity.

6. Remember the option of leaving the scout in place after unwinding all the attacking army?  This way the scout can have the opportunity of riding a longer trend move, while the 2nd wave of battle is out of scout's range.  As you know, trading longer time frame, required larger tolerance of price move.  In order to keep the risk small while having relatively larger price move in longer term trade, lot size has to be small.  Thus scout is small.

7. Just as what I told my friend, the beauty of this trading method is: you start with a scalp; if you are right, ride a trend; if you are wrong, rescue; if you are dead right, leave scout along the way to pin the major price move.





This was one of the many posts that he mentioned he spiralled within spirals

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2148899&postcount=4971

Quote from: fti
Hi auxesis,

.
I spiral within spirals, but this is complicated
There are no rules, It depends on experience.

The change is dependent on several factors,

form, depending on the rhytym,

shape, depending on the volitility and sigma,

book, depending on foreign capital levels,

When aggressive, I skip rightwards levels of progressions,

when defensive, I skip leftwards levels of progressions.



That is why you sometime see me stay a progression, a few times , before moving along. This stay is the precursor to the mode change that will come by. This is not easy to understand, unless you are very experienced with the MO and MM you are being introduced to. When you become more season in the methodology this tweaking , it just comes. It like a natural development to another stage of skills.



It is difficult to explain, this further takes out any rigidity, and that the risk taking shifts more and more to experience from the initial MO. But for many here, the initial basic AOW MO is still not within their grasp, yet.



regards


This is the part that I am trying to understand.  More for curiosity sake than for actual application.  I am sticking with the 1,1,2,3,5,8 and 1,3,5/1,5(surrender) for the time being.  I think he also mentioned that we could do a reverse sequence, ie front heavy attack sequence, if we are confident of the trend (reading of chart).



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jjs

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Re: Naked Chart Trading
« Reply #59 on: March 05, 2009, 12:23:08 AM »

Perhaps the best that I can understand from what both you and fti are saying may be illustrated by the example below:

1,1,2,3,5,-5,-3,-2,2,3,5,8

Would that be correct?
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