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Author Topic: AUDSGD  (Read 547 times)

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domperrier

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AUDSGD
« on: September 05, 2008, 05:37:32 PM »

I made a mistake trying to predict a reversal based on the dojis of three weeks past.

As at the time of this post, the Aussie is still dropping against the Sing, but given the huge move down from 1.31 to 1.16 currently(12% in less than 2 months), I believe the Aussie to be a good short-term bet.

Nevertheless, beware of catching a falling knife!


RSI at almost 14 is eye-popping for a major currency cross!
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domperrier

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Re: AUDSGD
« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2008, 11:22:10 AM »

A major V-shaped rebound is in store, with RSI dipping below 13, and panic leaving its footprints all over this chart.

I'm shopping for Aussies at Hassan's Moneychangers today!
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domperrier

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Re: AUDSGD
« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2008, 01:03:19 PM »

Bought some A$ at Sheen Moneychangers in The Arcade at a rate of 1.170 yesterday. Time will tell if I've been trying to catch a falling knife...
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HC

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Re: AUDSGD
« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2008, 03:30:42 PM »

Domperrier:

Are you buying actual notes from money changers? I think the "spread" offer by money changer is real bad (100 pips?).

If you wish to trade pairs against SingDollars, at least I know SAXOBANK has these pair available for trading.  The spread is about 15 pips  (Eg: AUDSGD Buy 1.1536, Sell 1.1551) for those pairs you mention here.  I think this is aready a very wide and unacceptable spread, but since I don't trade SGD pairs, I did not go an find out any other brokers (I am quite sure there are)  that offer a better spread on SGD pairs.
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domperrier

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Re: AUDSGD
« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2008, 10:40:43 PM »

Hi HC,

I realise the spread is bad at most moneychangers, but not being able to stomach the risk of currency futures trading,
I've decided to do it on a small scale, buying anywhere from $100 to $2000 at a go.

The thing is, even if the cross moves against me, I still have 'cash', albeit devalued,but if I plunge into the currency futures market, I can lose big as well as profit big.

My objective is merely to beat the pathetic 0.25% offered by deposits of SGD less than $50k.

My first foray was buying USD300 at 1.36 & HKD3000 for 5.71, which I sold in early Aug for 1.403 and 5.560 respectively.
EUR300 at 2.124 & 2.13, which I subsequently sold for 2.150.

Both earned me an annualised return of between 8 to 12%. Though the amounts are very small, I still beat the return on mere SGD savings.

As for JPY, I bought about Y56 000 in three batches at prices from 12.90 to 13.15 in June-July, and sold recently for 13.28.

Other currencies I've dabbled and made money on recently are the IDR, the Saudi Riyal and the UAE Dirham.

Yesterday, I bought EUR500 at 2.038, NZD500 at 0.9700, A$300 at 1.1700.

However, I also made the following wrong moves: re-entering Euro at 2.09, entering GPB from 2.69 till yesterday's 2.535, NZD@ 1.005 and A$@1.2340.

If I had made these mistakes in the real currency market, I would've been slaughtered, being a beginner and all...

Now, I merely keep these currency notes for posterity or until they turn a profit, or until I need to go on holiday.


I still don't break the rule 'Cash is King'... ;D

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domperrier

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Re: AUDSGD
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2008, 12:11:51 AM »

As to the earlier question whether I caught a falling knife, the answer is YES, I did commit that fundamental error...

But the Aussie has rebounded to around 1.19 since bottoming at 1.12, and now, the moneychangers are probably offering it at 1.205-1.210 at the very least!
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domperrier

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Re: AUDSGD
« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2008, 10:44:08 PM »

Then it rebounded downwards :-\

Well, I'm going to buy some more Aussie bucks tomorrow, and MORE if it tries to explore the 1.10 level!
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domperrier

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Re: AUDSGD
« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2008, 01:46:01 AM »

Haha...I'm stuck with some more Aussie dollars since my last posting, of course...but I added on some more at 0.96c today.

The chart is mind-numbing...From near a record high to within striking distance of the record low in less than four months!
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domperrier

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Re: AUDSGD
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2008, 05:40:25 PM »

The chart seems to be building a nice base after spiking down to the 92-93c region.

Now, it's hovering just above parity with  moderately bullish indicators...
The bullish engulfing candlesticks since the low convinces me that we'll soon see a cross significantly above parity soon.
Immediate resistance is at the 1.11 to 1.12 level.
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